How many doctors does society need to provide for our ongoing healthcare demands?

In the last 30 years, there has been a general consensus that was surplus of physicians. While several new osteopathic medical schools were started and others expanded, the number of graduates from allopathic medical school schools has remained steady since the 1980s. The limit on allopathic undergraduate medical education did not extend to graduate medical education (GME), however; the number of first-year residency spots open are 30% higher than the number of graduates from U.S. allopathic schools, and every year graduates of international medical schools account for 25% of residents, and now 25% of the physician workforce in the US are composed of IMGs.

There is now growing concern that we may be facing a looming physician shortage. Over the last few years, studies have shown that a shortage around 90,000 may occur by 2020. Reasons for the projected shortage include population growth particularly of the elderly, growing demand for medical care, retirement of practicing physicians, and younger doctors working fewer hours. The Council on Graduate Medical Education (COGME), a national advisory body that makes policy recommendations regarding the adequacy of the supply and distribution of physicians, predicts that if the current trends continue, demand for physicians will far outstrip supply. The Association of American Medical Colleges also reversed its longstanding position soon after the COGME report to call for increased training of physicians.

In the 2006 House of Delegates, AMSA developed new policy on physician workforce composition: we endorse COGME's recommendations, and call for an immediate increase in medical school enrollment to meet the impending need of physicians. Also, in 2005, we have developed many resources for students, including an educational primer on physician workforce composition and several papers and articles on topics such as primary care, distribution, and the role of international medical graduates. We believe that there are many critical issues of concern to us as advocates for students and patients, including the continued underrepresentation of minority students in medical schools, maldistribution of practicing physicians, lack of physicians in primary care and underserved areas, the role of international medical graduates (IMGs), and the duty of US health professionals to the global society at large. Finally, AMSA is writing new legislation to establish new medical schools, the United States Public Health Medical Schools, that will specifically produce physicians who will fulfill the needs of underserved communities.

Please continue to check back, as new resources will be added constantly. If you are interested in conducting in-depth policy research on this topic, please contact AMSA's National President or go to the AMSA Presidential Internship.