May 16, 2008  

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HIV Demographic Summary

EXTENT OF THE PANDEMIC

Source: UNAIDS, 2006

Worldwide HIV Population as of end 2005 38.6 million
HIV-positive individuals worldwide who do not know they are infected 34.7 million (90%)
People newly infected with HIV in 2005 4.1 million
Total deaths due to HIV / AIDS as of end 2005 25 million
Deaths due to AIDS in 2005 2.8 million
Children who will be orphaned due to AIDS by 2010 (Source: Avert.com) 18 million
People wordlwide who need ARV therapy immediately (Source: Avert.com) 6.5 million
People that have access to ARV therapy (Source: Avert.com) 1.3 million

WORLDWIDE HIV POPULATION BY REGION (2005)

Source: UNAIDS, 2006

Region HIV-Positive Individuals Adult (15-49) Prevalence (%) Newly infected with HIV (2005)
Sub-Saharan Africa 24.5 million 6.1 2.7 million
North Africa and Middle East 440,000 0.2 37,000
Asia 8.3 million 0.4 930,000
Oceania 78,000 0.3 140,000
Latin America 1.6 million 0.5 37,000
Caribbean 330,000 1.6 37,000
Eastern Europe and Central Asia 1.5 million 0.8 220,000
North America, Western and Central Europe 2.0 million 0.5 65,000
TOTAL 38.6 million 1.0 4.1 million

COUNTRIES WITH HIGHEST HIV-POSITIVE POPULATIONS AS OF END-2005**

Source: UNAIDS 2006 Report on the HIV Epidemic

Country Adult HIV Prevalence Rate
Over 25% of Adult Population (15-49):
   1. Swaziland 33.4%
15-25% of Adult Population (15-49):
   2. Botswana 24.1%
   3. Lesotho 23.2%
   4. Zimbabwe 20.1%
   5. Namibia 19.6%
   6. South Africa 18.8%
   7. Zambia 17.0%
   8. Mozambique 16.1%
10-15% of Adult Population (15-49):
   9. Malawi 14.1%
   10. Central African Republic 10.7%
5-9.99% of Adult Population (15-49):
   11. Gabon 7.9%
   12. Cote d'Ivoire 7.1%
   13. Uganda 6.7%
   14. UTanzania 6.5%
   15. Kenya 6.1%
   16. Cameroon 5.4%
   17. Congo 5.3%

** Note: once 5% or more of a country's adult population becomes HIV positive, the adult HIV prevalence rate will tend to grow exponentially over time (in some cases, by up to 50% per year). Source: ADF 2000 Background Paper: Economic Analysis of HIV/AIDS. The World Bank / ACT Africa / AIDS Campaign Team for Africa. www.iaen.org

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS

Source: The Macroeconomic Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment - Arndt, C. and Lewis, J. The World Bank

Economic Sector Impact
Government
  • higher spending on AIDS treatment
  • lower revenue due to decreased income taxes changes in revenue from trade due to shifts in production structure
Businesses
  • higher spending on insurance and benefits
  • lower profits due to:
    1. more sick leave and absenteeism
    2. decreased worker productivity
    3. loss of experienced workersless incentive to invest in training/education due to decreased life expectancy
Households
  • loss of income due to illness
  • higher spending on HIV / AIDS care depletes savings / assets
  • loss of social structure:
    1. fewer adults to support / guide younger generations
    2. more orphans
    3. more children leaving school to work and / or care for older HIV-positive relatives

ECONOMIC COST OF HIV/AIDS IN AFRICA

Source: www.unaids.org "Report on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic 2002"

  • Average adult prevalence rate of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2005: 6.1%
  • Growth rate of income per capita in absence of HIV prevalence rate: 1.1% (Swaziland) 2.5% (Botswana)
  • Growth rate of income per capita 1990-97: 0.4% (about three times less)

In African Countries with Adult Prevalence Rates Over 20%

  • Decline in the growth rate of GDP** per year: 2.6%
  • Cumulative decrease in GDP over 20 years: 67%

*Gross Domestic Product: Total amount of goods and services produced by a nation

Additional Facts

 

 


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